Potentially Huge Climate Agreement Struck In Paris Last Week

The Paris Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse emissions could end up being one of those things that most people ignore while it's happening but which future generations consider among the most significant events of the 21st century.  Good on the world leaders for being able to make it happen!

At the very end of the article there's mention that

"All the countries agreed on demands from the US and European Union for five-year reviews of their emissions reductions – an exercise that had been resisted by China."

This seemingly trivial detail may turn out to be tremendously important, as it provides a framework for what's known as "inspection and adaptation" in the Agile software community.  The inclusion of a frequent, recurring process for seeing how you're doing, what's working and what isn't, allows you to adapt your methodology as you go along.  It takes away the necessity of getting everything just right from the start and empowers you to use whatever you learn along the way to do a better job.

On the other hand, it's particularly sad that the U.S. government is currently so dysfunctional that the agreement had to include wording to prevent the Luddite Republican party from vetoing America's participation in the deal.  Many Canadians like me were embarrassed by PM Stephen Harper's head-up-his-ass leadership over the past decade, but I can't imagine how awful the life of an intelligent citizen of the US must be these days with Donald Trump as the poster boy for one of the ruling parties.

Edward Snowden: 21st Century Hero?

In the two years since Snowden first gained notoriety by releasing huge volumes of information about the National Security Agency's data-gathering techniques, I've had this creeping feeling that he may just become one of this century's most important heroic figures.  I've seen a couple of interviews with him, read a few articles about him, and now there's the New York Times op-ed that he penned last week... and everything I 've learned about Snowden makes me believe that he did was he did for the noblest of reasons.  It's hard to imagine any way in which he's benefitted by his actions, although I suppose for some, gaining celebrity would be justification enough.  I don't get that vibe off him, though.  As he says in the NYT article, he put his privileged lifestyle at risk and wasn't even confident that anything worthwhile would come of the risk he took.  I think it's possible that 20 years from now we'll look back at the revelations he provided into what the US government (and others) have been doing in the 21st century and realize just how critical it was that all of that spying came to light when it did.

I guess only time will tell how history will remember the man, but my money's on 'hero,' rather than 'villain.'

Gotta Love Fox News

They're almost as comical a news provider as The Colbert Report, especially when they do stuff like this: interviewing people about how Obamacare has adversely affected them, without even bothering to check to see if any of the stories are real/accurate. Or maybe they knew full well that those tales of woe were complete bullshit and went with them anyway. Either way, that seems about right for Faux News.

Happy 2nd Term, President Obama!

Today's the Inauguration for Barack Obama's second presidential term.  He remains in office at a time when his country appears to be melting down, between the lunacy of the Republican Party and the incredibly scary civil-war-over-guns that seems to be brewing.  It's hard to imagine what the U.S. will look like four years from now when the reins of power are handed over to someone new, but at least we can draw a little comfort from the fact that the near-term American policies won't be determined by the principles of Mitt Romney and the Conservative Machine. 

Mitt Romney's 47%

Yesssssss.  That feels good.

More On Denialism

Paul Krugman has a great article on how far down the rabbit hole the Republicans willingly and willfully fell in the run-up to this year's election, as well as a look back at some of the same behaviour during the Bush Jr era.  I love the way they actually felt empowered by 'unskewing' the polling data until that it became supportive of their unrealistic views.  Usually that sort of thing has caused enormous problems for the rest of us - see the economic disaster under Bush, as well as the ongoing climate change denialism - but in this case, it actually did a lot of good.  It kept them out of power for another 4 years and gave Obama another shot at fixing things.  That's a tall order, I know... but it still beats the alternative!

Life In The Parallel Universe

It's seemed for a while now that some of the Conservatives in the U.S. live in a parallel universe with some significant differences from our own.  You know the universe I'm talking about: where climate change is a hoax, the planet is only a few thousand years old, lowering taxes on the rich magically improves the situations of everyone, and evolution's still - at best - a crazy theory that could never be proved.

Well, in the aftermath of this week's election results, we can add another line item to that list of differences: the reliability of polls in predicting outcomes, and by extension, how math works.  Romney was apparently shocked by what happened as the election returns came in.  Why, when it had been so clearly forecast by a multitude of polling-aggregators?  Well, as an article at Huffington Post puts it:

'[T]he campaign was unprepared for this in part because it had ignored polling that showed the races favoring Obama. Instead, it turned to its own internal "unskewed" polls, which it believed more accurately reflected the situation on the ground. They didn't.'

That's what life must be increasingly like for those folks.  They know, to their very core, all kinds of things that just keep turning out not to be true.  That's pretty rough, but I find it hard to feel sorry for them.

A Great Day For America And The World

Yesterday's U.S. election went as well as any left-leaning observer could've reasonably expected.  And it went just about exactly the way Nate Silver, at FiveThirtyEight predicted it would, based on his aggregation of thousands of polls.  If Florida goes to Obama, as it looks like it will, then Silver will have gotten all 50 states right, as well as most of the Senate races.  And yes, Elizabeth Warren, one of my favourite voices on economics, will be sworn into the U.S. Senate in January!

Now that it's over, here are a few reflections and observations on what it all means:

• Nate Silver FTW!  It's fun to watch the same Conservative attack dogs who, just a few days ago were claiming that Silver's results were "skewed" by his liberal bias, suddenly declaring that "he just averaged the poll data; he didn't do anything special."  That's right, you dummies: he didn't do anything special, and yet it was still more than you could manage!  Makes one wonder what value any of you have, doesn't it?
• So yeah, the rampant denialism about what the polls were saying about the election, among Conservatives especially, was soundly and dramatically thrashed.  What are the chances that those folks will learn anything useful from that experience, such as what that might say about their similar attitudes toward climate change and evolution?  (Slim to nil, is my guess.)
• In my mind, the single most important outcome of last night's events is that Obamacare will survive long enough for the American people to get used to it.  Yes, there are going to be problems with it, and likely some will hate it.  But what won't happen, that's been occuring with shocking regularity over the past couple decades, is families won't be going bankrupt when someone gets sick any longer.  And people won't decide against visiting a doctor about a condition out of fear of not being able to afford it.  I personally believe that, once they get a taste of this - a watered down version of what the rest of the industrialized world takes for granted - there'll be no chance of ever getting rid of it.  Welcome to the second half of the 20th century, America!
• Mitt Romney, the Etch-A-Sketch candidate, has finally been erased from the political landscape. He may enjoy firing people, but in this case he couldn't even land the job in the first place. Romney can now continue not caring about the 47% of Americans who he views as parasites, and in fact can just go back to focusing on the top 0.01% of income earners, which is where he does well.
• These results aren't going to make the country to our south any less divided, but that would've been true even if Romney/Ryan had won.  The growing diversity within the U.S. - blacks, latinos/latinas, gays - is something that those who fondly remember an America that never was just aren't going to accept.  It's possible, maybe even probable, that their children will, but that's at least another 10 years away.
• Having said that, the fact that several states legalized gay marriage last night is huge!  These are examples of a popular vote favouring it, rather than a judge or political figure.  That shows real progress, if you ask me.  But, of course, as someone tweeted overnight, the real progress comes once it's not called "gay marriage" any longer... but just "marriage."
• And did I mention that Elizabeth Warren will soon be a U.S. Senator?  I can't wait to see what effect she has on that stodgy out institution when she gets there.

Anyway, it was a truly exciting night. I coughed most of the way through it, unfortunately, but at least the good guys (and gals) won. And that lessened the pain considerably.

All Signs Look Positive

I'm not taking anything from granted, but I am encouraged to see that FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver now has President Obama's chances of getting re-elected tomorrow at 91.4%, which is certainly the highest it's ever been.  If accurate, that's an amazing example of peaking at the right time. It's the sort of thing that, in sports, usually results in championships (see: 2012 San Francisco Giants).

Considering all that's riding on tomorrow's outcome, I really hope Silver knows what he's talking about.

Joss Whedon For Romney

By far the most shocking of 2012's political endorsements:

10 Days Until History Is Made

The 2012 elections in the States happen in a week and a half, and there's obviously a lot riding on them, as usual. To appreciate how important these things can be, just imagine if Al Gore had been the president, starting in January of 2001. Assuming September 11th had transpired the same way, it's doubtful that President Gore would've used that event to justify an attack on Iraq, as they had nothing to do with that terrorist attack. Nor is it likely that the guy who believed in creating a figurative 'lockbox' for his country's Social Security and Medicare programs would've presided over the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.  He certainly wouldn't have cut taxes for the wealthy in his first term, as Bush did, creating the perfect environment for a recession to develop in.


As for this year's election, the country stands to lose its first, admittedly timid foray into universal health care if Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan win.  They both believe emergency room care is just fine for those who can't afford anything better, and it's that brand of 'compassionate conservatism' that voters will bring about if they elect those two.

Among the other races to be decided on Nov 6th, the one that I'm most interested in - by far - involves Elizabeth Warren's run for Senate in Massachusetts.  Yes, that Elizabeth Warren.  Fortunately, Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight, puts Ms. Warren's chances of winning at 92%!  I firmly believe Senator Warren could have a huge, positive impact on the Senate, if she gets there.

Fewer Horses And Bayonets

I was mostly watching Game 7 of the Cards-Giants game last night - which ended up being a blowout, and hence one of the least exciting Game 7s ever - but between innings I was checking out the third and final Obama-Romney debate.

I'd have to say that Obama was both the 'card' and the 'giant' in that one, based on some of the commentary I've read this morning.  One exchange I did get to see was Obama's response to Romney's tired routine about how the current administration is planning 'devastating' cuts to the military, citing the decrease in the number of ships, for example, that exist today compared to 100 years ago.  The President had the perfect comeback to that:



"We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them.  We have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines..."

That, Mr Romney, is what's known as 'being schooled.'  Following which, Mr. Obama says, "You're welcome.  And don't forget to do your homework next time!" 

None of which is likely to stop Romney from trotting that same meaningless statistic out some more over the next two weeks... but it really ought to.

Reality Check On Romney

I love it when people who've had opportunities handed to them on a silver platter all their lives take to disparaging those who haven't. It's a very peculiar form of blindness, it seems to me (who wasn't born into any kind of wealth), because the folks making those remarks generally seem to have a very skewed perspective on just how lucky they've been compared to almost everyone else. They'll get their first job thanks to an influential parent pulling some strings somewhere, and then criticize others for their 'lack of initiative' in finding work. It'd be funny if it weren't so sad.

Which brings us to Mitt Romney's latest, and possibly greatest 'gaffe' - being caught on tape speaking his mind about "the 47%" who support President Obama, who don't pay any federal income tax, who are "dependent upon government, who believe they are victims..." He wraps up this rare, honest glimpse into his personal worldview with:

"My job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

This is a man who's had everything handed to him his entire life and yet believes he deserves to be elected President of the United States. Has there ever been a more obvious disqualifier for any serious candidate for that lofty position?

[Update the next day: As commenters on various political blogs have quickly pointed out, Romney's dismissal of those who don't pay any federal income tax is incredibly ironic considering the tax-evading lengths he's gone to with his foreign bank accounts. Not to mention that he refuses to release any of his own income tax returns prior to last year's. Just unbelievable.]

Never Let Facts Get In The Way Of You Making A Point

I love how this current American election cycle has really brought to light the way in which some people are playing fast and loose with the facts. But even more than that, I love how often, and how quickly those folks are being called on it! Paul Ryan's Republican Convention speech earned him the hashtag #lyinRyan while the speech was still going on, for example. And even some of the TV journalists are finally stepping up in this regard, such as Soledad O'Brien's takedown of Peter King over Conservative's often-referenced 'Obama Apology Tour' that had the audacity to never actually, you know, happen.

This sort of thing must just seem so unfair to those who live in a universe where all they have to do is say something in order for it to be true!

Well, At Least Paul Ryan Made History Last Night

Too bad for him he made history by delivering the most dishonest convention speech ever!

Gold Rush Madness

As hard as it is to believe, there's actually a groundswell of enthusiasm among American Conservatives to return to a gold standard. Once again, Professor Krugman shows just why that's such an incredibly bad idea.

It's like that old saying, "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." The current crop of Republicans seem bound, bent and determined to prove the truth in that!

What Institutional Ignorance Leads To

One of the big news stories south of the border this weekend has been the moronic comment by a Republican Senate candidate who claimed that women can't get pregnant as a result of 'legitimate rape' because the female body has some innate defense against that.

This, of course, is exactly the sort of thing you'd expect to hear from a representative of a movement that denounces science and values ignorance above all else. If you're in that group, then it makes perfect sense that you'd buy into all sorts of ridiculous crap, as you struggle to build up your Rube Goldberg contraption of a belief system. Every moral dilemma that challenges your precarious world view requires another layer of fairy dust - such as a woman's body being able to reject the seed of a rapist - to be sprinkled over the ground around you. Thus you can argue that the Earth is only a few thousand years old, that men and women coexisted with dinosaurs, that all proof of the existence of evolution is actually the result of a worldwide conspiracy of scientists, that the planet isn't really warming up, and so on.

What I can't get, though, is how there can be enough people so deluded in the U.S. that the party that represents those beliefs continues to get members elected. That really boggles my mind.

What Paul Ryan Makes Me Think Of

Paul Krugman, on Paul Ryan (who famously said that Ayn Rand is the reason he got into politics):

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."

If Mitt Romney's selection of Ryan as his running mate this weekend didn't give the election in November to Barack Obama, then the American people are even stupider than I thought... which is a pretty tall order, these days.

Death To Intolerance

I love stories like this one about the morons at 'One Million Moms' suffering another defeat, and not just because it features a superhero (who I've followed for 40 years now) thumbing his nose at one of the last examples of intolerance that supposedly reasonable people still think they can get away with.

It's been a great couple of weeks in comics, and in the White House, for gay rights, and long overdue at that.

The Chutzpah Doctrine

If you want to know what sort of news items drive me crazy, here's one:

A few weeks ago, Republican candidate for president Mitt Romney declared that the Obama administration was engaging in a "war on women" (in response to earlier Democratic claims that Republican fighting against birth control funding within health coverage was just that). He justified this claim with the statistic that 92% of the job losses since Obama took office were felt by female workers.

This extremely misleading figure reflects the fact that the majority of the recession's job losses happened under Bush's watch and dramatically impacted male-dominated industries like construction. By the time Obama took over, that wave of layoffs had passed and a second wave had begun to affect government positions, including office jobs and schools - both of which are more likely to have women in them than men. These cutbacks were then greatly exacerbated by austerity measures that Republicans like Romney insisted were needed (paradoxically along with tax breaks for the wealthy) under the guise of reducing the deficit. In other words, Romney's party pushed vehemently to cut the very jobs that he was now blaming Obama for losing!

Which, as Paul Krugman pointed out in a column about this, is an amazing example of chutzpah. That Jewish term is often described as being when a man kills his mother and father and then throws himself on the mercy of the courts on the grounds of being an orphan! Romney, and the Republican party in the U.S. in general, are currently masters of chutzpah, it seems. And yet few people seem to be calling them on it!