Some NHL Playoff Thoughts

I'm watching the Pens spank the Caps in tonight's sole Game 7 (tomorrow sees two more Game 7s, as Boston hosts Carolina and Detroit tries to avoid being upset by the Ducks) and doing some number crunching. There's been a lot of excitement about this year's playoffs, perhaps first and foremost because of the Ovechkin/Crosby matchup in the second round. But that got me thinking about how one might statistically measure the quality of each year's postseason. I decided to focus on the first 2 rounds, going back to the first year after the lockout (2006), to give me a small but current sample space. What follows is what I came up with.

Love Game 7s? Then the 4 years break down as:

2006 Round 1 = 1, Round 2 = 0, total = 1
2007 Round 1 = 1, Round 2 = 0, total = 1
2008 Round 1 = 3, Round 2 = 0, total = 3
2009 Round 1 = 2, Round 3 = 3, total = 5

Wow! This year's a bonanza for fans of Game 7s!!

On the other hand, if we look at average goal differential per game, we see:

2006 Round 1 = 2.07, Round 2 = 2.15, average = 2.09
2007 Round 1 = 1.81, Round 2 = 1.45, average = 1.69
2008 Round 1 = 1.96, Round 2 = 1.85, average = 1.93
2009 Round 1 = 2.11, Round 2 = 1.88*, average = 2.03* (pending 3 Game 7 results)

Looked at through that prism, 2007 was by far the most exciting over the first 2 rounds, as it featured the lowest goal differential and therefore the closest set of games.

Another view would be to consider the average length of each series (shorter series being less exciting, longer ones being moreso):

2006 Round 1 = 5.50, Round 2 = 5.00, average = 5.33
2007 Round 1 = 5.38, Round 2 = 5.50, average = 5.42
2008 Round 1 = 6.00, Round 2 = 5.00, average = 5.67
2009 Round 1 = 5.50, Round 2 = 6.75, average = 5.92

Here, this year's (2009) first 2 rounds win the prize, although 2008 featured the best 1st round (with 3 series going 7 games, 3 going 6, 1 going 5 and only 1 sweep).

If we look at the number of games that went into Overtime:

2006 Round 1 = 11, Round 2 = 6, total = 17
2007 Round 1 = 6, Round 2 = 7, total = 13
2008 Round 1 = 9, Round 2 = 6, total = 15
2009 Round 1 = 6, Round 2 = 6*, total = 12* (pending outcome of 3 Game 7s)

2006 gets the nod here, although 2008 isn't far behind.

In other words, I don't think there's any clear winner. Each of the past 4 years (counting this one) has had something going for it during those incredible first 2 rounds (when lots of teams, and their fans, still have room to dream). Of course, every hockey fan views the proceedings differently, based on how their own team does. I definitely preferred 2007 and 2008, for example, because both times the Rangers made the 2nd round.

(Speaking of which.. why oh why couldn't Caps goalie Varlomov have played like this in Game 7 back in Round 1?? Of course, the Rangers only fired 15 shots at him, but still... even a couple of soft goals might have been enough to propel the Blueshirts on to face the Bruins in Round 2. Sigh.)