So Just How Close Is Close?

Continuing my catch-up series on the NHL's season, I was struck by the situation between Montreal and Florida. For those who don't know, the two teams finished 8th and 9th in the Eastern Conference, respectively, meaning that the Habs get to play on while the Panthers are all set to enjoy the golf courses in the Sunshine State. But let's look at just how close those two teams were, at the end:

Montreal finished with a record of 41-30-11, good for 93 points.
Florida also finished with a record of 41-30-11, or 93 points.

The first tie-breaking consideration when the points totals are identical, assuming that both teams managed to play their full 82-game season, is total wins. As you can see, the two teams also tied on that front.

The next consideration goes to the head-to-head record between the two teams. This is what propelled the Habs into their opening round series against their Original Six rivals, the Bruins, because they took 3 of the 4 meetings against the Panthers in 2008/09. However, one of those three Montreal wins came about in Overtime or a Shootout, meaning that the game could very easily have been won by Florida. In fact, had the Panthers scored a late 3rd period goal in that game - just that, score one goal in the dying moments! - the two teams would have split the season series down the middle.

So in that alternative scenario, let's imagine that they still somehow end up tied in points and wins (because if everything else had gone the same, Florida would actually have had more points than Montreal anyway). Now, however, the head-to-head results would not have been enough to crown a winner for the 8th and final playoff spot. It would have then moved to goal differential (goals-for minus goals-against). Montreal posted a differential of +2 (249-247) but Florida outdid them by the slimmest of margins, finishing at +3 (234-231)!! And had Florida indeed won that Overtime/Shootout game with the Habs in regulation instead, as I'm hypothesizing could easily have happened, they would have actually had an even slightly better advantage there, as well.

Imagine that! With the scoring of one goal, at one key point in their season, Florida would have gotten in and the Habs would have missed the postseason in their 100th year of existence!

Now, you can make the very reasonable argument that both teams would have played differently down the stretch had Florida been holding the tie-breaker. For example, the Habs were apparently quite listless last night in losing 3-1 to the Penguins (with nothing but a "move up" in the standings on the line) and perhaps that wouldn't have been the case had their entry into the playoffs still been on the line. On the other hand, though, they lost a lot of other games recently - finishing the season with 4 straight defeats - even though they hadn't clinched a trip to the playoffs until their 2nd last game! So who's to say...?

I should also point out that the Rangers may - depending on what happens in their final game today against the Flyers - end up tied with Montreal and Florida in terms of total points (93). However, they've won 42 games already, meaning that they held the first and most important tie-breaker in the event that all 3 teams finished with that point total, which is why they were able to clinch on Thursday night.