Six Of Eight First Round Series Will Go At Least Six Games

After my complaints last fall about how the baseball playoffs started off with so many short series (three of the four Divisional Series were sweeps), I'm happy to see that three-quarters of the NHL's first rounders will last at least six games. Only one series ended in a sweep - Pittsburgh over the Senators - and now we know that only one of them will end in five games - the Rangers' ejection of the Devils - with every other series now sitting at 3-2 heading into Game 6, thanks to the Capitals' gutsy win over the Flyers this afternoon and the defending champion Ducks staving off elimination late last night against Dallas.

With that many Game 6s, what are the odds that we'll get at least one or two Game 7s in the first round? Well, let's see (looking at those teams who are up 3-2 right now):

- Montreal is in Boston tonight, and if there's any momentum to be had, the Bruins should have it, but...; hopefully it goes 7 but this is more a case of me crossing my fingers than really believing it will happen! [Update: Game 7 is now set for Montreal on Monday night!]

- the Flyers head home for Game 6 on Monday night having just missed one chance to close out the series in Washington; I suspect that the home town crowd, in front of whom Philadelphia won both earlier games in the series, may be enough to prevent a Game 7 from being needed [Update: Yet another wrong prediction, as the Caps overcame a 2-0 deficit tonight to win 4-2, and force a Game 7 tomorrow night.]

- Detroit was unable to win either of the two games in Nashville so far, so why would I expect them to be able to pull it off tomorrow afternoon? This has been a homer series to date, and so I could definitely see this one going the distance [Update: Wrong again... So much for the home team winning each game! Detroit blanked the Preds 3-0 in Game 6 and so avoided a seventh game in Round One.]

- San Jose and Calgary had been alternating wins through the first four games, but then the Sharks managed back-to-back victories to take their 3-2 lead; I can't see the Flames losing three in a row, especially with Game 6 at home tomorrow night, and so I'll predict a Game 7 in this series [Update: A good prediction this time around, as Calgary blanked the Sharks 2-0 to force one more game back in San Jose.]

- Colorado is at home tonight with a chance to close out the Wild, the latter of whom still haven't scored a second period goal in this series yet, and only have one first period goal through five games! I like the Avalanche's chances of avoiding a "winner take all" game back in Minnesota [Update: I got this one right, as the Avalanche held on to a third period 2-1 lead last night and became the first Western Conference team to advance to the second round.]

- Dallas gets a second crack at knocking off the champs when they host Game 6 tomorrow night; considering that the Ducks didn't even show up for the first two games, it feels like they've got the momentum now and they'll probably force a Game 7 [Update: Well, the Ducks didn't look a team with any momentum in Game 6 in Dallas, as they took a 1-0 lead into the third period and then put forth a flat effort for the final 20 minutes and lost 4-1. No Game 7 to see here!]

In other words, I'm expecting roughly half of the series to extend to a seventh game (Detroit/Nashville, SJ/Calgary, Dallas/Anaheim) which probably means that it'll actually be the other three that do so! After all, predictions aren't exactly my strong suit! But that doesn't stop me from making them every once in a while. [Update: Well, I was 2 for 6, which is about my usual accuracy rate at predicting sporting events! Yes, flipping a coin would be a better tactic! So what's your point? Besides, I did correctly guess that three of the six Game 6s would result in a Game 7!]

[Update on the Rangers' opponents for the 2nd round: Following Boston's loss in Game 7, the Rangers now know they will play either Montreal or Pittsburgh. They'll find out which one tomorrow night, when the Flyers/Caps series is settled.]